Four years after the ’coup’ in Tunisia, opposition divisions benefit Saied
Four years after the ’coup’ in Tunisia, opposition divisions benefit Saied
Last month, various opposition groups sought to organise protest rallies against Kais Said on the fourth anniversary of what they consider a “coup d'etat” by the Tunisian president.
On 25 July 2021, the anniversary of the proclamation of the Tunisian Republic in 1957, Saied started to assume full powers by suspending parliament and dismissing the government. He later dissolved a council tasked with ensuring judicial independence and repealed the constitution to further consolidate his prerogatives.
Since then, the president has orchestrated a crackdown on civil rights that has halted the democratic gains that followed the overthrow of former long-term autocrat Zine el-Abidine ben Ali by mass protests in 2011. This included the arrest of dozens of opposition figures, lawyers, activists and journalists.
To denounce this regression, the National Salvation Front, one of the main opposition coalitions, and the Tunisian Network for Rights and Freedoms, a group of left-wing parties and NGOs, called for a rally in the capital, Tunis.
The Support Committee for Ahmed Souab, a lawyer and former judge who was arrested in April on "terrorism" charges after criticising a series of trials deemed political and unfair, also called on his supporters to demonstrate.
However, three days before the scheduled date, a war of press releases exposed divisions within the opposition.
The Tunisian Network for Rights and Freedoms refused to march alongside the National Salvation Front and decided "to postpone its event to a later date".
A few hours later, the latter issued a statement in which it announced the cancellation of its call for mobilisation, deploring "the failure of efforts to organise a united movement of civil and political forces".
Ultimately, the event went ahead after appeals from groups less closely linked to political parties, such as the Ahmed Souab support committee and the Coordination of Families of Political Detainees, which accused the successive cancellations of being "manifest treason".
The demonstration brought together between 2,000 and 3,000 people, a figure considered to be on the high side compared to recent protest actions, but very low in comparison with similar events before Saied’s clampdown.
Far from being anecdotal, the confusion surrounding the demonstration highlights the deep divisions running through the opposition to Saied.
‘Ideology of exclusion’
For activist Chaima Issa, co-founder of the Citizens Against the Coup collective and a member of the National Salvation Front, the inability to form a united front during the July demonstration is symptomatic of a deep-rooted problem within the Tunisian opposition.
"The problem isn't developing an alliance strategy or a programmatic base. The problem is much deeper. There's an ideology of exclusion fuelled by resentment, even a form of contempt," she told Middle East Eye.
While there are many opposition groups to the ruling power in the country, three main poles emerge. And within this triangle, each side seems unable to converge with the other two.
‘Some [opposition] actors prefer a deadly status quo to unity’
- Chayma Issa, co-founder of Citizens Against the Coup
The first is represented by the National Salvation Front, founded in 2022 around Ennahda, a party that has participated in successive governments since the 2011 revolution.
Ennahda led parliament before its dissolution by Saied. Its leader, former parliament speaker Rached Ghannoushi, has received several heavy prison sentences in the following crackdown on dissent, including a 14-year term in July for "plotting against the state" and a 22-year sentence handed down in February on the same charge.
Critics of this group fall into two categories: those who reject the very principle of a party stemming from political Islam, and those who criticise its management of the post-revolutionary decade, which was marked by a series of security, economic and political crises.
The second pole of the opposition is represented by the Free Destourian Party, which claims to be the heir of former heads of state, Habib Bourguiba and Ben Ali, from Tunisia’s independence in 1956 to 2011. Both presidents were supporters of Destour, the movement that led the fight against the French protectorate, and its successive offshoots.
The Free Destourian Party is hostile to the various parties that ruled during the post-revolutionary decade, in particular Ennahda, and uses rhetoric similar to that of Saied, particularly regarding NGOs, which they accuse of being in the pay of foreign states.
The party's leader, Abir Moussi, is a fierce opponent of Saied and has been in detention since October 2023. She has been convicted several times under Decree Law 54, a law adopted in September 2022 to officially combat fake news but which has become a tool for censoring dissenting voices.
She is also being prosecuted for "endangering state security and inciting civil war" and theoretically faces the death penalty.
The third group is more heterogeneous. It brings together political parties and civil society organisations which do not identify with the two aforementioned groups.
Among them, the Tunisian Network for Rights and Freedoms was created to denounce the presidential election of September 2024, which many observers considered a foregone conclusion and rigged by the authorities to ensure Saied's re-election.
Despite its dynamism and significant media exposure, this group suffers from a weak activist base, especially outside major urban centres.
Need for a credible alternative
The current divisions within the opposition to Saied are the legacy of historical clashes between the left, Islamist parties and the Destourians. And not ending them has a debilitating effect on the opposition to the president, Issa believes.
"Some actors prefer a deadly status quo to unity," she told MEE.
The 45-year-old academic and activist was herself arrested in 2023 in connection with the so-called "conspiracy against state security" case and sentenced to 18 years in prison in April, together with other prominent opposition figures.
The mass trial, which concluded with heavy sentences of up to 66 years in prison, has been decried as politically motivated by rights groups.
‘We should achieve convergence in the fight for rights and agree on a shared foundation for thinking about the post-Saied era’
- Houssem El Hammi, Sumoud coalition
Houssem El Hammi, the coordinator of the Sumoud coalition, a collective of intellectuals and activists defining themselves as progressive, which is part of the Tunisian Network for Rights and Freedoms, is also wary of the harmful effects of divergence within the opposition.
That said, he thinks there is ground to turn the page and move forward.
"There remain significant differences between the three main opposition groups, with each side levelling serious accusations against the other two," he told MEE.
"However, there is an awareness that the opposition is in the government's crosshairs, and all describe the current regime as despotic."
Faced with this common challenge, he recommends that each side, "without rushing things", engage in "self-criticism to restore trust".
"Then, we should achieve convergence in the fight for rights and agree on a shared foundation for thinking about the post-Saied era. We should not aim for homogeneity but rather establish a pact to peacefully manage political competition."
The persistence of these divisions partly explains the longevity of Saied’s rule despite its poor record, both politically and economically. While rights and freedoms have sharply regressed in the country, Tunisia is experiencing a serious socio-economic crisis that the president has been unable to stem.
Although dissatisfied with the current situation, Tunisians do not seem to see the opposition as a credible alternative.
The last presidential election can be interpreted this way. Though considered a mockery, the electoral process included two challengers who could have provided voters with a way to express dissatisfaction. But the few who cast their ballots - with a historically low turnout of less than 30 percent - re-elected Saied for a second term.
This opposition disunity is also reflected in the trade union movement. The demonstration organised last week by the Tunisian General Labour Union, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015 for its role in the country’s democratic transition, is a recent example.
Called to protest Saied's autocratic turn and its attempts to weaken the union, with the arrest of several members among other measures, the protest attracted only 3,000 people at best.
While this figure may be seen as significant given the current clampdown on dissent, it is significantly low compared to the number of union members - almost one million.
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