A decade after its defeat in Yemen, the terror group is back with new tactics, global targets, and a digital playbook
Since the Arab Spring swept across the Middle East in 2011, Yemen has rarely left the headlines. Once described as Arabia Felix – the fortunate Arabia – the country has become synonymous with instability, proxy wars, and violent extremism.
While the rise of ISIS briefly dominated the battlefield and the airwaves, its eventual collapse did little to stabilize Yemen. The Islamic State’s pockets of power were eliminated by 2015, yet the group’s demise created no sense of peace.
Instead, it left behind a more enduring threat: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, an organization that continues to adapt, strike, and recruit even as Yemen sinks further into economic and political disarray.
The persistence of Al-Qaeda in Yemen is not theoretical. Earlier this year the group reminded the world of its survival through a series of attacks that showed both its persistence and its evolution.
On January 8, AQAP claimed responsibility for two drone strikes against UAE-backed fighters in the Al-Buqayrah area of Abyan Governorate, releasing a short video as proof. Just three months later, in April, it released similar footage of drone strikes on UAE-supported outposts in the Mudiyah district, again underlining its ability to project power in areas thought to be under coalition control.
By June, the group’s leader Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki appeared in a video urging lone-wolf attacks on leaders in Egypt, the Gulf states, and the United States, even naming President Donald Trump and entrepreneur Elon Musk as potential targets – a stark reminder that AQAP remains committed to global jihad, not just local insurgency.
The fall of Mukalla
For Yemenis, AQAP’s capacity for disruption is real. In April 2015, the port city of Mukalla – Yemen’s fifth largest and the capital of Hadramawt province – fell in a matter of days.
For Dr. Omar Bajardana, a researcher on militant groups and head of the Dar Al-Ma’rifa Center for Studies and Research, the fall of his native city remains a turning point. “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was able to seize control of Mukalla and large parts of Hadramawt due to several key factors,” he explains.
”Corruption was widespread in the institutions of civil and military power. The Muslim Brotherhood’s political networks controlled much of the local administration. Popular anger at the state was already rising, fueled by the Houthi coup in Sanaa. The security forces were largely drawn from outside the governorate and showed little loyalty to the community they were supposed to defend.”
On April 2 of that year, hundreds of Al Qaeda militants stormed the city. They overran army camps and government buildings with little resistance. They freed around 300 prisoners, including senior AQAP members, from the central prison.
They looted an estimated $100 million in cash and gold from the local branch of the central bank. By the end of the week, AQAP had declared itself in control under the banner of the “Sons of Hadramawt,” a calculated effort to cloak its jihadist agenda in the language of local tribal legitimacy.
Rule by fear and order
For residents, the shock was immense. “The fall of Mukalla and the eastern coastal cities to al-Qaeda was a huge shock to me and a pivotal moment in the history of southern Yemen,” says Hamdi Abdel Aziz Al Yafyi, a journalist from Aden who covered the takeover extensively.
”Al-Qaeda in southern Yemen is largely a political creation. What I remember is that after seizing control, they used excessive force, restricted citizens’ freedoms and lifestyles, and carried out horrific executions. They systematically stole from private citizens and public institutions alike,” he added.
Yet, AQAP also sought to govern rather than simply terrorize. It collected port revenues and trade taxes, controlled fuel imports, and launched propaganda campaigns casting itself as a protector of ordinary Yemenis.
Unlike ISIS, which alienated local tribes with indiscriminate brutality, AQAP pursued a softer approach, embedding leaders such as emir Qasim al-Raymi and propagandist Khalid Batarfi into local governance structures.
For nearly a year, Mukalla functioned as its de facto capital, where order came through fear but also through a calculated semblance of stability.
AQAP’s experiment in governance ended in 2016 when the Saudi-led coalition intervened, with the United Arab Emirates playing the decisive role. “Without the UAE, Mukalla and the coastal cities would not have returned,” says Al Yafyi.
“Security and state institutions came back only because of their efforts. We continue to stand by them in the fight against political Islam.”
Dr. Bajardana also acknowledges Emirati support: “The UAE significantly contributed to rebuilding and shaping military and security institutions, normalizing civilian life, and removing the traces of destruction and fear caused by AQAP,” he says.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s role in Hadramawt reflected its broader strategic concerns. Riyadh, which launched its intervention in Yemen in 2015 to contain the Houthis and counter Iranian influence, viewed the province as a vital buffer on its southern frontier.
Unlike the UAE’s emphasis on building local security forces, Saudi Arabia worked through financial aid and tribal networks to reinforce state authority. While its approach sometimes differed from Abu Dhabi’s, both countries shared the goal of stabilizing Hadramawt and preventing Al-Qaeda from regaining a foothold.
After liberation: New challenges
The liberation of Mukalla was hailed as a decisive victory against AQAP. Yet, the aftermath exposed the depth of Yemen’s institutional fragility. When AQAP retreated, it left behind gutted state institutions and an emptied treasury. The local branch of the central bank had been stripped of its reserves, depriving the new authorities of the funds needed to rebuild.
“The absence of state institutions and the lack of an operational budget were crippling,” recalls Dr. Bajardana.
“The new authority inherited only empty buildings and broken trust.”
The UAE, working with regional and international partners, filled part of the gap, explained the expert. It provided material capabilities, training, and intelligence, enabling local authorities to resume basic services and reestablish security. For a time, this external backing gave Hadramawt the stability that its own institutions were too weak to provide.
But deeper challenges persisted. Economic deterioration, the collapse of services, and intensifying rivalries between political and tribal components eroded governance.
Polarization widened, while extremist networks exploited the disarray.
“Despite the liberation, AQAP still poses a real and existential threat to Hadramawt, and its return is highly likely, especially after the failure of local authorities and the spread of corruption in all state institutions,” warns Dr. Bajardana.
Still, the expert believes the spread of chaos can be halted if reforms are pursued with urgency. His proposed roadmap includes combating corruption, unifying religious discourse, reforming divided authorities, monitoring places of worship, and drying up sources of extremist support.
He also emphasizes economic and social solutions: investment projects to reduce unemployment and poverty, integration of marginalized groups, infrastructure development, modernizing education, and strengthening counterterrorism capabilities.
Al Yafyi agrees with this approach, adding that defeating AQAP requires more than policing its fighters; it requires confronting its ideology.
”The current effort to eliminate this threat involves intensifying intelligence programs to confront its ideology wherever it is found, starting with mosques, schools, and cultural institutions,” he says.
“I believe it is essential to establish a project to set up a cultural and religious identity for South Yemen – a cultural identity grounded in the tangible and intangible historical heritage of South Yemen, and a religious identity grounded in the moderate Sufi school.”
“Eliminating extremist ideology must be a priority, and with this project in place, it must proceed in parallel with military and security efforts.”
A regional warning
Yemen’s lingering war with Al-Qaeda is not just a local problem but a regional and international warning. AQAP’s survival – despite years of airstrikes, raids, and counterinsurgency campaigns – demonstrates how militant organizations thrive when corruption, poverty, and weak governance leave communities vulnerable.
Its shift from conventional warfare in Mukalla to guerrilla tactics, and now to drone warfare and digital propaganda, mirrors the trajectory of jihadist movements elsewhere, from Iraq to Syria to the Sahel.
The group’s 2025 attacks are a reminder that territorial defeat does not equal defeat of ideology. Unless Yemen and its partners succeed in building accountable institutions, delivering basic services, and creating opportunities for young people, the story of Mukalla may be repeated not only in Hadramawt but in fragile states across the Middle East and beyond, experts warn.
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