Trump tries to speed up drone sales as big Gulf orders wait

The Trump administration is set to reassess a non-binding agreement that regarded US Reaper drones as long-range missiles, as part of a broader overhaul of US foreign military sales, a US official told Middle East Eye.

The decision could speed up the timeline for deliveries of MQ-9 Reaper drones to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, all of which are eyeing the weapons system. It would reduce bureaucracy for arms manufacturers that have to wait for government approval before selling drones.

Reuters first reported that the Trump administration was set to reinterpret how it classifies drones under the 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Congress was set to be briefed on the new regime this week.

The MTCR is a non-binding agreement among 35 countries. It is not a treaty and therefore, the administration has a broader scope to change how it interprets US obligations under it.

In 2020, during his first term in office, Trump relaxed how the US classifies drones under MTCR. The current move, MEE understands, would expand on that. According to Reuters, the US will designate drones as aircraft.

The administration’s shift underscores how fast the battle-space and arms industry has been transformed by drones, which have been used in the recent conflict between Israel and Iran and wars in Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and the Caucasus.

The MTCR was established before drones were invented; however, under it, the US considered the MQ-9 a long-range missile due to its speed and ability to carry a large payload, which led to stricter export controls.

MEE reported in May that the Trump administration was streamlining the process for foreign military sales. The efforts started before Trump visited the oil-rich Gulf, where he sealed pledges from Gulf states to purchase tens of billions of dollars' worth of arms, aircraft, and AI chips - commitments that have yet to translate into cash deals.

Trump’s move could push up the timeline for Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to purchase MQ-9 Reaper drones.

The Gulf and MQ-9 drones

After Trump’s visit to the Gulf, General Atomics, the maker of MQ-9 drones, said it was in talks with Saudi Arabia for an order of up to 200 drones. Reuters reported the sale as “more than 100” on Wednesday.

The UAE has long been trying to purchase MQ-9s. Abu Dhabi made headway after signing the 2020 Abraham Accords with Israel, but then talks stalled under the Biden administration.

The Emirati deal is more sensitive because the UAE wants to integrate its own domestically produced precision missiles made by state-owned arms maker Edge into the MQ-9B SkyGuardian platform. The deal was authorised, and a US official told MEE in May it could proceed within a year.

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Like its neighbours, Qatar has been trying for years to purchase MQ-9 Reaper drones, but the talks have dragged on. In March, the US approved the $2bn sale of eight of the unmanned aircraft to Doha.

Human rights activists in the US have long opposed the sale of sophisticated military equipment to Gulf states.

But the Trump administration has also run up against resistance from some in the US national security establishment who are concerned the Gulf states, especially the UAE, could leak sensitive technology to China.

The debate over military hardware parallels an even more intense one over the sale of sophisticated AI chips to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  Trump announced the deals with fanfare and sparked a rally in AI stocks, but the deals appear to have stalled with no public confirmation from Saudi or Emirati companies that they have received the chips.

Bloomberg reported in July that the deals were delayed and that in the case of the UAE, the Trump administration was reconsidering the terms of the deal.

In both AI chips and drones, the US faces rising competition from China.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already taken delivery of China’s take on the MQ-9 - the Wing Loong II. Saudi Arabia is also set to operate the more advanced Wing Loong 10B, according to reports.

The US’s Nato ally Turkey has also emerged as a drone export powerhouse thanks to the Bayraktar TB2, which Ukraine and Azerbaijan have deployed.