Overwhelming majority of Palestinians oppose Hamas disarmament, poll finds

An overwhelming majority of Palestinians are opposed to Hamas's disarmament and are deeply sceptical that US President Donald Trump’s peace plan will lead to a permanent end to Israel’s war on Gaza.

About 70 percent of Palestinians polled across the occupied West Bank and Gaza say they staunchly oppose the disarmament of Hamas, even if that means a return to Israeli attacks, according to a poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) between 22-25 October and published on Tuesday. 

Notably, opposition to the disarmament of Hamas is strongest in the occupied West Bank, where around 80 percent of respondents said they want the group’s armed wing to maintain its weapons. The occupied West Bank is governed by the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is dominated by Hamas’s secular rival, Fatah.

In Gaza, which endured two years of Israeli assaults in what the United Nations, world leaders and human rights experts have called a genocide, a slimmer majority of Palestinians, 55 percent, said they opposed Hamas’s disarmament.

The poll’s sample size was 1,200 people, of whom 760 were interviewed in the occupied West Bank and 440 in Gaza. The survey was conducted face-to-face, with responses being submitted to servers that PCPRSR said only researchers can access. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Support for Hamas retaining its weapons goes along with deep scepticism over Trump’s peace plan for Gaza.

The poll found 62 percent of Palestinians do not think the Trump plan will succeed in ending the war “once and for all”. Pessimism is higher in the occupied West Bank, where 67 percent of respondents were doubtful of the plan, compared to 54 percent in Gaza.

 Four in five Palestinians want Mahmoud Abbas to resign

Palestinians were asked for the sixth time since the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, whether the operation was correct or incorrect. In previous polls, the number who supported the attack decreased substantially as Israel’s genocide raged.

With the ceasefire now signed, 53 percent of Palestinians said 7 October 2023 was “correct”. Support for the Hamas-led operation was substantially higher in the occupied West Bank, where 59 percent of respondents called it “correct” compared to 44 percent in Gaza.

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Hamas remains substantially more popular than Fatah, which dominates the PA and is led by President Mahmoud Abbas.

Overall, 35 percent of Palestinians support Hamas compared to 24 percent in favour of Fatah, while 32 percent said they do not support either party or have no opinion.

Hamas outpolls Fatah in the occupied West Bank, where 32 percent of respondents support the group compared to 20 percent for Fatah. In Gaza, support for Hamas is even higher, with 41 percent in favour of the group compared to 29 percent for Fatah.

The vast majority of Palestinians, 60 percent, are satisfied with Hamas’s performance, with 66 percent in the occupied West Bank and 51 percent in Gaza “satisfied”.

According to the poll, the group is vastly more popular than Fatah and the PA, and its support has increased.

“The past two years have led to greater support for Hamas rather than the opposite and that this conclusion is true in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, but more so in the former,” the report said.

When Palestinians were asked about specific national leaders, their reaction to octogenarian President Abbas was deeply negative. Among Palestinians polled, just 23 percent are satisfied with Abbas, while 85 percent want him to resign.

The imprisoned Palestinian official Marwan Barghouti continues to display broad appeal and would win presidential elections if he were to run against Abbas or senior Hamas official Khaled Meshaal.

International force supported if Hamas not disarmed

Trump’s 20-point peace plan calls for Gaza to be governed by a committee of Palestinian technocrats overseen by a so-called "Board of Peace", which the US leader would chair. The US is in the process of drafting a resolution at the UN to call for a mandate for Arab and Muslim peacekeepers to deploy to Gaza, current and former US and Arab officials tell Middle East Eye. 

The ceasefire has already been marred by Israeli violations. Israel launched on Tuesday its most devastating attack on Gaza since the ceasefire was signed. At least 104 Palestinians were killed, including 46 children, as strikes pummelled Gaza City, Khan Younis, and refugee camps in central Gaza.

'The past two years have led to greater support for Hamas rather than the opposite... this is true in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip'

- Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research

The poll found sizable support for the part of Trump’s plan calling for a committee of Palestinians not affiliated with Hamas or the PA to govern Gaza. A majority of Palestinians, 53 percent, said they opposed such a committee, but 45 percent of respondents supported it.

In Gaza, a slim majority, 51 percent of Palestinians, support the idea, while opposition in the occupied West Bank is much stronger.

When Hamas and the PA’s exclusion was not mentioned and Palestinians were told the committee's formation would be linked to reconstruction funds, 67 percent of Palestinians supported the idea.

Opposition to the entry of an Arab and Muslim peacekeeping force into the enclave varies greatly between the occupied West Bank and Gaza. In the former, 78 percent of respondents oppose the idea, while in the latter, just 52 percent oppose it, within the margin of error.

Support for the international force increased substantially when respondents were told the peacekeepers would secure Gaza’s borders but not disarm Hamas. Fifty-three percent of respondents in Gaza and 43 percent in the occupied West Bank said they supported the force with this mandate.