'Up for grabs': Russia pushes Ukraine deal as Zelensky is at his weakest

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Turkey on Wednesday came as a US-Russian plan to end the war in his country hit the headlines, indicating a push for large concessions from Ukraine.

The plan, reportedly put forward by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev, would require Ukraine to completely withdraw from the Donbas and officially cede the region, as well as Crimea.

It would also block Kyiv from becoming a member of Nato, see the alliance deploy an air fleet to Poland, create a frozen line of contact in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and cut the Ukrainian army from 880,000 troops to 600,000.

The proposal includes promises of strong US security guarantees for Ukraine, vast reconstruction efforts and preferential access to European markets, and it does not exclude Kyiv from joining the EU.

Several Ukrainian officials initially dismissed the deal to Middle East Eye as nothing but a "Russian burger".

"This is bullshit," one Ukrainian official told MEE. "Russian demands might include occupation of the Moon and taking the post of God, but who will agree?"

Another Ukrainian official said that, broadly speaking, the proposal was very similar to the one Russia pushed in spring 2022, which Kyiv declined.

However, on Thursday night, Zelensky posted a message on social media saying he did not want to make strict comments on the reported proposal, whose authenticity was confirmed by the White House, and that he was open to working with the Trump administration to find a way forward.

Zelensky has had a difficult relationship with Trump and is fearful of angering the US president, who blames Ukraine for starting the war.

Several reports suggested that Ukraine’s input was included in the deal through Rustem Umerov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, who was on a regional tour in recent weeks, visiting Turkey, Qatar and other countries.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that at the last minute, Umerov included a full amnesty clause in the 28-article deal for everyone involved in the war effort, as he and members of Zelensky’s entourage face corruption accusations.

'Perfect timing'

Several western officials believe the timing of the deal, which entails large concessions from Ukraine, was deliberate.

Zelensky is battling severe corruption allegations targeting the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, and his longstanding business partner Timur Mindich, who are accused of receiving $100m in kickbacks from a state-owned nuclear energy company.

Zelensky also needs billions in financial and military aid as Russian forces slowly advance around the city of Pokrovsk, shifting the battlefield advantage in favor of Moscow.

"Perfect timing for the Russians and the Americans to put pressure on Zelensky," said one European diplomat. "He is in a very difficult place and might snap."

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A western ambassador said that Zelensky’s visit to Turkey, as the plan was being concocted, was not a huge surprise: "He is trying to be at the table of the negotiations rather than being on the table up for grabs."

The diplomats believe Russia and the United States may alter the conditions over time to make them more attractive for the Ukrainians, and that the initial unacceptable draft might be a negotiation tactic.

"But looking at Russian media, I do not see any change that would indicate a genuine push for peace," the western ambassador said. "The war propaganda is in full swing."

During his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Zelensky is believed to have asked Ankara to revive negotiations held in Istanbul, as Kyiv seeks more prisoner exchanges during the Christmas period.

But the western ambassador said Zelensky might have been trying to craft an alternative to the Russian proposal by working with European allies, including Turkey.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said last weekend that Ankara believes an end to the war in Ukraine is closer than ever.

Turkey has officially maintained that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be protected, and it has refused to recognise the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia.

However, Turkish officials privately acknowledge that a resolution to the Ukraine war could only be achieved through the loss of some Ukrainian territories, a message they have conveyed since at least 2022.