What Kiev hopes you won’t notice: The hidden anatomy of Russia’s push forward on all fronts
How November brought rapid advances, collapsing Ukrainian positions, and a decisive shift in the war
Over the past month, the pace of the war has shifted sharply. Russian forces are now pushing forward along seven major axes, with heavy fighting underway for eight cities. Outside the first month of the Russian military operation, Moscow has never launched an offensive on this scale. The timing is particularly notable: late autumn offers some of the worst conditions for maneuver warfare, and drones maintain constant surveillance over the battlefield.
As expected, the Russian offensive that began in May 2025 has been steadily building momentum. Its cumulative effects are now unmistakable as the year draws to a close. Across the line of contact, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are facing mounting defensive crises, scrambling to plug gaps with increasingly scarce reserves. In secondary sectors – the areas that draw less media attention – Ukrainian units are so overstretched that, for the first time since 2022, they have been forced to abandon positions without a fight.
For now, these crises remain localized. But their growing number points to a broader and far more troubling trend for Kiev. One could even draw a parallel with the Allied Hundred Days Offensive in 1918, which brought the German army to the brink of collapse and forced Berlin to surrender just before the front fully gave way.
On November 20, President Vladimir Putin visited the command post of the ‘West’ grouping for a frontline briefing. His message was clear: the ongoing offensive is the primary instrument for pressuring Ukraine toward capitulation – or, in official terms, for achieving the objectives of the Special Military Operation.
What follows is a breakdown of the key developments along the front over the past month, moving from north to south.
Kupiansk and the northern front
The Kupiansk sector is in Kharkov Region, with the city itself acting as a buffer shielding Kharkov – Ukraine’s second-largest city – from the east. Russian forces pulled out of Kupiansk in September-October 2022, and for nearly a year the area saw little heavy fighting. That changed last fall, once Russian units crossed the Oskol River and secured a foothold on its western bank.
Through the spring and summer, Russian troops encircled Kupiansk from the north, setting the stage for the battles that erupted this fall. In early November, Russian military officials announced they had taken the eastern part of the city. Still, the Yubileiny district – a cluster of Soviet-era apartment blocks – remained under Ukrainian control and functioned as a fortified stronghold for the AFU.
On Thursday, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported to Vladimir Putin that Kupiansk had been fully liberated, though he noted that isolated Ukrainian units were still being cleared out. Following our standard conservative approach to frontline reporting, we are not marking the city as fully taken yet and are waiting for visual confirmation.
Another important development in this sector was the liberation of the village of Dvurechanskoye by the ‘North’ grouping. This allowed their foothold to link up with the Oskol bridgehead held by the ‘West’ grouping.
Liman and Seversk
Russia lost Liman (in the Donetsk People’s Republic) during Ukraine’s 2022 counteroffensive. Without retaking the city, securing the northern bank of the Seversky Donets River – a key prerequisite for encircling the AFU’s major stronghold, the Slaviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration – remains impossible.
After surrounding Liman from three sides in October, Russia’s ‘West’ grouping launched a direct assault on the city. With the Yampol railway station now under Russian control, Ukrainian forces have been left with a single narrow route for resupply. Given the pace of Russia’s advance inside Liman, further gains in the coming month look likely.
South of the Seversky Donets, the AFU’s defenses in Severodonetsk continue to erode. For three years, the city has served as a key Ukrainian stronghold in the region. Russia’s ‘South’ grouping has fully liberated Zvanovka – a railway station on Seversk’s southern edge – and is now pushing into the city itself, moving steadily toward the center.
West of Seversk, Russian troops crossed the Seversky Donets and seized two settlements on the southern bank – a milestone that seemed out of reach not long ago. The breakthrough suggests that Ukrainian forces in this sector are nearing the point of critical exhaustion.
Konstantinovka
The situation looks somewhat better for Ukrainian forces in Konstantinovka, a major city that acts as the southeastern gateway to Slaviansk and Kramatorsk. Here, the AFU have concentrated their second-largest grouping after Pokrovsk (discussed below) and, until recently, managed to hold their defensive line.
That changed after Russian troops captured the settlement of Ivanopolye on November 21, breaking through Konstantinovka’s outer defenses. Russia’s ‘South’ grouping has since begun fighting inside the city itself. During a briefing with President Putin, the commander of the army group said Konstantinovka could be fully taken by mid-December. The president urged caution, advising against rushing the operation.
The major battle of 2025 – the fight for Pokrovsk (known in Russia as Krasnoarmeysk) – was examined in detail in our previous report . To recap: Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, and Rodninskoye form the second-largest urban cluster still held by the AFU. With no major settlements for nearly 100 kilometers to the west, the fall of Pokrovsk risks triggering a domino effect across the central front.
By October, between 2,000 and 5,000 Ukrainian troops had been encircled in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd (Dimitrov). During the first half of November, the AFU attempted to break the siege through Rodninskoye, but each attempt collapsed. By November 15, Pokrovsk had been fully taken, and Rodninskoye partially taken – effectively closing the ring around Mirnograd.
The “cauldron” now appears on the verge of splitting in two. Ukrainian troops in the southern pocket are trying to retreat north, but with most buildings reduced to rubble and temperatures dropping below freezing, there is virtually no shelter left. The battle for Pokrovsk is entering its final phase, raising the question of how effectively Ukrainian forces can build a new defensive line west of the city.
This sector has drawn the least media attention – it has no major cities, no high-profile landmarks, and, at least on the surface, no dramatic shifts. Still, its open steppe terrain makes sustained defense extremely difficult.
Between November 14 and 15, Russian forces seized the strategically important settlement of Novopavlovka. Troops from the ‘Center’ grouping quickly threw up pontoon bridges over a destroyed crossing north of Dachnoye and took the settlement with minimal resistance. Novopavlovka had a pre-war population of roughly 3,500 people – for comparison, Sudzha in Kursk region had about 4,900 – and the Russian advance pushed as far as eight kilometers in a single push, crossing two defensive lines and a major water barrier. Taken together, these developments point to a serious crisis for Ukrainian forces in this area.
The situation is even more alarming on the Gulaipole front. Since early November, Russia’s ‘East’ grouping has advanced up to 15 kilometers along a 30-kilometer stretch, capturing a dozen settlements and more than 260 square kilometers of territory. Supply routes to the city of Gulaipole have been cut, and the front line is now pressing up against the city itself; urban fighting may begin as early as December. Ukrainian units are offering almost no sustained resistance, suggesting that virtually all reserves have been redirected toward Pokrovsk.
The sector where the ‘Dnepr’ grouping operates has been relatively quiet for some time. During Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive, Orekhov served as a rear headquarters and a key logistical hub for the AFU; in 2023, some of the heaviest fighting unfolded in and around the city.
Over the past month, Russian forces have tightened the noose around Orekhov from three sides, taking the settlement of Malaya Tokmachka, essentially a suburb of the city. Even so, Orekhov is reinforced by strong defensive positions, meaning a rapid breakthrough is unlikely unless the entire sector collapses.
Along the Dnieper River, Russian troops continue their slow, methodical advance. Heavy fighting is underway for the strategically important town of Stepnogorsk, and to its north, there are no significant Ukrainian fortifications for roughly 10 kilometers. This axis is the closest approach to Zaporozhye, a major frontline city with a pre-war population of around 750,000. In an effort to shield the city, a substantial number of Ukrainian troops remain pinned down in this area.
Taken together, the past month marks a turning point on the battlefield. The Russian advance is no longer a series of isolated breakthroughs but a coordinated campaign stretching from the forests of Kharkov region to the banks of the Dnieper. The AFU, strained by chronic manpower shortages and the collapse of several defensive lines, is increasingly being forced into reactive, piecemeal responses rather than strategic planning.
The overall trajectory is clear: each week brings new evidence that Kiev’s ability to sustain large-scale defense is eroding, while Russia’s forces – larger, better supplied, and operating under unified command – continue to push forward.
In this environment, political decisions in Kiev and the West may soon matter as much as military ones. As Russia consolidates its gains and expands pressure along the entire line of contact, the question is shifting from whether Moscow can maintain the initiative to how far it intends to carry this offensive.
What began as a gradual buildup in the spring has now become a sustained, multi-directional campaign. If current trends continue, the winter and early spring of 2026 may bring even more consequential shifts on the battlefield – and, potentially, in the broader political landscape of the conflict.
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