Lebanon likely to announce full disarmament of south 'in coming weeks'

Lebanon is likely to announce in the “coming weeks” that it has completed the full disarmament of Hezbollah in the country’s south, as its army prepares to tackle the group's weapons caches in the north.  

“South of the Litani [River], they are making a lot of progress…They are now beginning to focus on their planning for the north,” Ed Gabriel, who heads the Washington-based non-profit, the American Task Force on Lebanon, said in a press briefing on Wednesday, following a trip to the region where he met US and Arab officials. 

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have been searching for Hezbollah weapons and destroying them south of the Litani River under a ceasefire agreed with Israel in late 2024.

Announcing the completion of that mission would come at a critical time for the Mediterranean country, which a senior US official recently referred to as a "failed state". 

Beirut has entered direct talks with Israel under US auspices, even as it continues to absorb strikes from its southern neighbour. 

“Would that [disarmament announcement] encourage Israel to realise that things are moving forward and they need to engage with the Lebanese?” Gabriel said, adding that, “We are hoping that the US would verify” any Lebanese claim. 

Lebanon previously said it would accept US or French soldiers deploying in the south to verify its military's work. 

Israel has carried out waves of strikes on Lebanon, accusing Hezbollah of attempting to rearm and entrench itself. In November, Israel assassinated Haytham Ali Tabatabai, a senior Hezbollah commander, in a busy southern Beirut suburb, ramping up tensions.

Hezbollah pulls back

Lebanon was engulfed in conflict after Hezbollah began attacking Israel following the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attacks on southern Israel. The intervention backfired spectacularly on the Shia group, which was considered the world’s largest armed non-state actor and is also a major Lebanese political party.

Israel invaded southern Lebanon, assassinated the group’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, and destroyed large swaths of Hezbollah’s arsenal. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria in December 2024 has deprived the group of a key ally whose territory served as a supply bridge to Iran.

Lebanon and Israel hold first direct talks since 1983

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The LAF began disarming Hezbollah after the group agreed to sign a ceasefire with Israel. That deal enshrined Israel’s ability to strike Hezbollah at will, with US support.

Hezbollah has absorbed those attacks without retaliating. The ceasefire stated that the LAF would be the only armed force in Lebanon.

The government has tried to avoid a confrontation with Hezbollah and deploy the LAF through consent.

Analysts and diplomats say the LAF has made real progress disarming the group, but that its work has been aided by Hezbollah’s tacit consent to pull back in the south.

Overall, Hezbollah insists on retaining its arms, citing Israel as a threat. Israel occupies five hilltops on its border region with Lebanon. Hezbollah still has an arsenal in southern Beirut and the Bekaa Valley, western and Arab diplomats say. 

Lebanon’s government is headed by President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, both favoured by the US, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Tensions have risen between Beirut and Tehran in recent weeks. Lebanon’s foreign minister rejected an invitation to visit Iran.

The shift in influence has been notable this year, with Iranian envoys, such as Ali Larijani, keeping a low profile during visits to Lebanon, while US envoys like Morgan Ortagus and US ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack have made high-profile visits.

Israel and Lebanon held indirect talks in 2022 when they demarcated their maritime borders. Their talks in December marked their first engagement among civilian envoys and came despite opposition from Hezbollah.

Beirut is also eyeing reconstruction funds from energy-rich Gulf states, which were promised at the start of 2025 but have not materialised.

The US previously told Beirut it would need to show progress on disarmament before Gulf funding materialised.