Palestine and statehood: How it might happen and what it would mean

More than three-quarters of the UN now recognise Palestine as a state - how will it become a full member?

Palestine has been seeking statehood at the UN for several decades, not least during the leadership of Yasser Arafat (illustration/AFP)

Palestine has been seeking statehood at the UN for several decades, not least during the leadership of Yasser Arafat (illustration/AFP)

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Israel’s genocide in Gaza, in which more than 62,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023, has increased pressure on the rest of the world to endorse Palestinian statehood.

Formal recognition of Palestine by other countries is not new, and has been growing since the late 1980s.

But it's only during the past decade that Western nations have followed suit in increasing numbers.

On 24 July, France announced that it intended to recognise Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), which begins on 9 September, the first G7 nation to do so.

“True to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognise the State of Palestine,” said French President Emmanuel Macron.

Paris' announcement was followed on 29 July by one from the UK (albeit with conditions attached), then Canada on 30 July and Australia on 11 August.

What is statehood?

Statehood is a contested concept in international law and political theory.

Definitions vary, but at its simplest, a state is a political entity with supreme authority over a designated territory, making it formally independent from other states.

US President Bill Clinton and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat open Gaza international airport in Rafah in December 1999. It stopped taking flights in 2001 amid Israeli attacks (AFP)

The Montevideo Convention, signed in 1933 between the countries of North and South America, codified four criteria for a state, namely:

- A permanent population
- A defined territory
- An independent government
- The ability to enter into relations with other states and establish full diplomatic relations

These benchmarks, while widely accepted, are not binding under international law, allowing them to be interpreted in a flexible and non-restrictive way, not least when it comes to Palestine.

Despite not being a full UN member, Palestine has increasingly entered into full diplomatic relations with other states, and since 2012 has joined treaties open only to countries.

Who decides on statehood?

UN headquarters New York — National flags flutter outside the UN building in New York City (AFP)

While no single body formally grants statehood, being a full member of the UN is the ultimate mark of acceptance as a sovereign state within the international community.

At the UNGA, every member has equal voting rights: Tuvalu (population 11,000), for example, has the same vote as India (population 1.45 billion).

However, the US, France, Russia, China and the UK hold greater leverage as permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC).

Several territories, including Somaliland, Transnistria and Taiwan, have their own governments, militaries and legal systems. But they lack universal recognition from other states, and so are yet to become fully recognised UN members.

What are the steps to statehood at the UN?

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at the UN in New York in September 2017 (AFP)

Becoming a full UN member is a complex process involving three main steps, each of which needs to be completed in turn:

1. Application: The prospective state applies to the UN Secretary-General, currently Antonio Guterres, declaring it accepts the formal obligations of UN membership.

2 Recommendation: The prospective state then has to gain the approval of the UNSC, which has 15 members, five of which sit as permanent members. To clear this stage, the prospective state must be approved by nine of the 15 members, including all five permanent members.

3. Acceptance: The applicant must then be accepted by a two-thirds majority of the 193-member UNGA, a number that Palestine has already exceeded.

Why does statehood matter to Palestinians?

For many Palestinians, global recognition of statehood and full admission to the UN would be a huge symbolic step towards serious international acknowledgement of their right to self-determination.

Recognition would also confirm Palestine’s status as a state under international law, meaning that other states would be obliged to respect its territorial integrity, borders and political independence.

In practice, this means that any state recognising Palestine would need to revise its bilateral relations with Israel by clearly differentiating between Israel and the occupied Palestinian territory, in line with existing obligations under Security Council Resolution 2334 and a 2024 International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion.

However, some observers are sceptical about the prospects of recognition changing the lives of ordinary Palestinians.

Critics of the Oslo Accords and the Two-State Solution may see any recognition as an affirmation of the 1967 borders and a Palestinian state on Western terms.

Others have argued that the largely symbolic gesture of offering Palestine recognition masks how Western countries, such as the UK and France, continue to enable Israeli annexation of Palestinian land.

It's instructive to look back at how Palestinian hopes have reached this point.

1948: Palestine, Israel and the Nakba

1948: Crowds celebrate Israeli independence, while a Palestinian mother and child are separated from their home by barbed wire (Israeli Government Archive/ AFP)

In November 1947, UN Resolution 181 called for the partition of Palestine, then under a British mandate, into Arab and Jewish states. Jerusalem was to be governed as an international territory.

Once the British had left, Zionist militias destroyed at least 530 Palestinian villages, killed around 13,000 Palestinians and displaced 750,000 others.

The Nakba resulted in the ethnic cleansing of two-thirds of Palestine’s Arab population, and culminated in the unilateral declaration of the state of Israel in May 1948.

The US offered Israel informal recognition the day it declared independence, and formally ratified this a year later, in 1949. By the 1960s, Israel had gained diplomatic recognition from most UN members, save Muslim-majority states.

Palestinians, in contrast, were still without a state.

1974: Recognition of the PLO

PLO leader Yasser Arafat speaks before the UNGA in New York on 13 November 1974 (AFP)

In November 1974, a year after the war between Israel and Arab nations and the resulting oil crisis, Palestinians again pushed for statehood at the UN. The result was Resolution 3236, which stated:

- Palestinians have a right to self-determination, national independence and sovereignty

- The Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO), an umbrella organisation then led by Yasser Arafat, is the Palestinian people’s sole legitimate representative

A second resolution that same day gave the PLO non-member observer status at the UN, allowing it to participate in some discussions - albeit without voting rights in the UNGA.

Opposition came from Israel, the US and the UK, among others, with other Western nations, such as France and Australia, abstaining.

But the resolution passed with support from Asian, Arab and African countries, many of which had recently become independent from colonial powers.

1988: Independent Palestine declared

PLO leader Yasser Arafat meets with UN General Secretary Javier Perez de Cuellar during a meeting about Palestine at UN European HQ, Geneva, on 14 December 1988 (AFP)

On 15 November 1988, Yasser Arafat, leader of a Palestinian government-in-exile in Algiers, declared the independence of the State of Palestine on behalf of the PLO.

His decision came amid the First Intifada, the six-year Palestinian uprising, and King Hussein of Jordan’s subsequent severance of ties with the West Bank.

The move was immediately recognised across the Arab world. By the end of 1991, 90 states had recognised Palestine, including China, India, Iran, most of Africa and much of Asia.

Meanwhile, Israel ordered its diplomats to urge countries not to endorse a Palestinian state. The West took note: in Europe, only a handful of Communist states offered recognition.

With the bulk of the UNSC opposed, including the US, full UN membership failed to materialise.

Yet Palestine continued to gain further recognition throughout the early 1990s, mostly from new countries that emerged following the collapse of the USSR and Yugoslavia.

1993: The Oslo Accords

From left: Israeli Prime Minister Yitzahk Rabin, US President Bill Clinton and PLO leader Yasser Arafat after signing the Oslo Accords at the White House on 13 September 1993 (AFP)

In 1993, amid the First Intifada, PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin began talks that resulted in the Oslo Accords.

One of the results was the Palestinian Authority (PA), a governing body given limited civil control over designated areas of Palestine and intended as a future Palestinian government.

To critics, the deal fragmented a would-be Palestinian state into something reminiscent of apartheid-era South Africa.

Any optimism in Israel and Palestine was ultimately crushed after the assassination of Rabin by a right-wing Israeli gunman in November 1996.

But the accords, backed by Washington, were hailed as a diplomatic triumph and formalised Western support for a Two-State Solution. In 1999, the EU first formalised its support for a “democratic, viable and peaceful sovereign Palestine State”, and its readiness to recognise such an entity.

The next year, following the breakdown of the Camp David Summit 2000, the Clinton Parameters proposed a Palestinian state sovereign over 95 percent of the West Bank, and later all of Gaza. But this verbal support failed to translate into the US and other Western states offering Palestine full recognition.

Still, Palestine continued to find backing elsewhere. In December 2011, Mercosur, the South American economic bloc, signed a free-trade agreement with Palestine amid a wave of recognition from the continent.

2011 - 2023: The West starts signing up

The Palestinian flag is raised for the first time at the UN in New York on 30 September 2015 (AFP)

Only after Palestine applied for UN membership in 2011 did Iceland become the first Western European nation to recognise Palestine formally, doing so in December of that year. Sweden became the second in 2014.

At the UN in 2012, Palestine was upgraded from a non-member “observer entity” to a non-member “observer state”.

This new status is held only by Palestine and fellow non-member the Vatican (known at the UN as the Holy See). It allows extra privileges in UNGA debates - but still doesn't give Palestine voting rights or full membership.

2023-present: Israel’s genocide in Gaza

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UNGA in New York in September 2024 (AFP)

Since Israel declared war on Gaza, several Western countries have formally recognised Palestinian statehood. First to respond were Ireland, Norway and Spain in a joint move in May 2024.

Ireland, for example, upgraded the Palestinian Authority in Ireland from a diplomatic mission to an embassy, staffed by a Palestinian ambassador. Israel closed its embassy in Dublin in retaliation.

But in April 2024, Palestinian aspirations were once again dashed when the United States used its UNSC veto to block Palestine’s application for full UN membership.

A month later, Palestine was granted further UN rights - but still no member status - via a UNGA resolution passed at a special emergency session on the Israel-Palestine conflict.

The resolution also urged the UNSC to give "favourable consideration" to Palestine's request for statehood. It passed 143-9, with 25 abstentions, including the UK, Germany, Italy and Canada among others.

Nine countries opposed the resolution: Argentina, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Micronesia, Naura, Palau, Papua New Guinea and the US.

Fourteen months later, amid widespread reports of Israeli-imposed starvation in Gaza, several states, including France, the UK, Canada, and Australia, finally signalled their intention to recognise Palestine at the upcoming UNGA in September.

2025: New York summit and Palestine

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud, and French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot chair the Palestine conference at the UN on 29 July 2025 (AFP)

In late July 2025, a delayed summit at the UN in New York, co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, saw more nations support the idea of Palestinian statehood. Israel and the US boycotted the conference.

At the end of the proceedings, the summit issued a joint statement and declaration, with most signatories from the West.

Both documents condemned the attacks of 7 October, demanded an immediate ceasefire, the unconditional release of all hostages held by Hamas, unhindered aid access and a Two-State Solution.

The joint statement: Issued on 29 July, it said that the signatories “have already recognized, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognize the State of Palestine, as an essential step towards the Two-State Solution, and invite all countries that have not done so to join this call”.

But the wording masked a range of interpretations of recognition. Some countries, such as Malta, said afterwards that they would recognise Palestine in September. But others, such as New Zealand and Finland, did not.

The declaration: Signatories to the declaration called for, among other things, Hamas to free all remaining hostages, end its rule in Gaza, and hand over its weapons to the PA.

But again, several signatories, including Japan and Italy, did not put a date on when they would recognise Palestine.

How many countries have now recognised Palestine?

At the time of writing, the number of full UN members that formally recognise Palestine stands at 147 out of 193 - just over 75 percent.

If recognition is not limited to UN members, then 149 states, including the Vatican, recognise Palestine, according to the Palestinian foreign ministry.

These figures exclude France and other nations which have signalled intent, and whose formal recognition would push the figure beyond 80 percent.

The picture is complicated by countries which have historically indicated support, but whose actions have since suggested otherwise, including Hungary and Papua New Guinea.

What happens next?

This year's annual UNGA begins on 9 September, with the general debate taking place from 23-29 September.

All UN member states, as well as Palestine and the Holy See, are afforded at least one 15-minute opportunity to speak in the debate. The representative from Palestine is due to speak on 25 September.

Protests in support of Palestine outside the UN, New York, on 29 July 2025 (AFP)

In terms of statehood, the focus for Palestine will be on gaining approval from the UNSC.

To be admitted, Palestine needs backing from all five permanent members and at least four of the 10 non-permanent members.

Palestine should easily obtain the support of the former. Of those on-permanent members, six - Algeria, Guyana, Pakistan, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Somalia - diplomatically recognise Palestine. Three others - South Korea, Denmark and Greece - all voted in support of Palestinian statehood at the UNGA in 2024.

The issue comes with the permanent members.

France and the UK now look more favourably on statehood for Palestine. In this, they join Russia and China, which recognised the state in 1988

That leaves the US as the only permanent UNSC member blocking Palestinian statehood.

And it's here that Palestine's bid for statehood will likely fall on this occasion.

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