Why Moscow and Washington-led military bloc were never destined to merge

The idea of Russia one day joining NATO has become an international meme. To many it seems so absurd that it reads like a parody. Yet the notion continues to resurface in political debate, like a ghost that refuses to leave the stage.

The latest revival came in 2022, when Russia and the West entered their most dangerous standoff in decades. Commentators wondered aloud how relations had sunk so low and whether a different path had ever been possible. More recently, former US congressman and Trump ally Matt Gaetz suggested that Russia should be accepted into NATO as a way to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

Even Der Spiegel added fuel, publishing documents showing that under Bill Clinton the US did not entirely reject the idea of Russian membership. It was Germany and others in Western Europe, the magazine reported, who feared that opening NATO’s doors to Moscow would mean the alliance’s slow dissolution.

So who exactly blocked the path? The closest Russia ever came to joining NATO was in the early 1990s, just after the Soviet Union's collapse. Boris Yeltsin’s government openly declared NATO membership a long-term goal. There were serious conversations at the highest level. But they didn't lead anywhere.

Part of the reason lay in Washington itself. A powerful bloc of the American elite was against any Russian presence in NATO’s inner circle. From its inception, NATO had been designed as a US project, structured around American leadership. Russia, even weakened, retained military parity, global influence, and a sphere of interests that could not be subordinated. Unlike Poland or Hungary, it was not a junior partner to be absorbed. There cannot be two heads in one alliance.

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The other part of the reason was philosophical. NATO’s first secretary general, Lord Ismay, famously defined its purpose in 1949: “to keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down.” By the 1990s, the German question had been solved by reunification. But if NATO also gave up the “Russian threat,” it risked losing its reason for existing altogether. With the Soviet Union gone, the alliance drifted into an identity crisis. Accepting Russia would have hastened what many in Berlin and elsewhere already feared – the death of NATO itself.

What if Russia had joined?

Let us imagine the alternate universe where Russia did sign up. Would it have resolved tensions with the West, as Gaetz suggests? Or would the quarrels have simply moved inside the tent?

To answer, one can look at the example of Türkiye. Ankara has been part of NATO since 1952 but remains the odd man out. Turkish geography, culture, and ambitions often clash with those of its European and North American allies. Russia, had it joined, would likely have occupied a similar outsider role – but on a far grander scale, with nuclear weapons and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

There is, however, a crucial difference. Türkiye has been tolerated because it controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles and does not challenge NATO’s overall dominance. Russia never viewed itself as a regional player but as a European power in its own right. Europe has always been Moscow’s primary sphere of influence – just as it is Washington’s. To coexist peacefully, one side would have had to step aside. Neither ever intended to.

Why it could never last

Instead of membership, the West offered Russia a “special partnership” : permanent dialogue, joint councils, limited cooperation. But this fell apart quickly. Moscow demanded equality. Washington, triumphant after the Cold War, refused to treat Russia as anything other than a defeated state. Pride collided with pride. The dialogue reached a dead end.

Even if full membership had been offered, the story would have ended the same way. Russia and the United States would inevitably have clashed over the balance of power inside the alliance. At best, this would have produced a messy divorce. At worst, Russia might have split NATO by drawing away countries that were themselves uneasy with US dominance.

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In truth, Russia has always been “too big to join.” The alliance could absorb small and medium states – even awkward partners like Türkiye or Hungary. But not a country capable of rivaling America itself.

That slim chance is gone

The 1990s provided the one fleeting moment when Russian membership could have been tested. It passed. By 2025, the question is no longer hypothetical. The chance is gone forever.

And NATO itself is no longer what it was. In the United States, voices once confined to the margins now argue that the alliance is a burden, not an asset. In Western Europe, trust in Washington is eroding. Dreams of “strategic autonomy” grow louder. NATO staggers on, but without clarity of purpose.

Against this backdrop, Russia’s place in NATO is not simply unrealistic – it is absurd. Our country has its own path, its own burdens, and its own battles. The alliance may continue to search for reasons to justify itself. But Russia has no need to be part of that “celebration of life.”

Whether one calls it fate or irony, the verdict is the same: Russia and NATO were never meant to merge. Not in the 1990s, not today, not even in an alternate universe.

This article was first published by the online newspaper Gazeta.ru and was translated and edited by the RT team

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