Why Israel is closer than ever to building the Third Temple

With Al-Aqsa Mosque effectively divided between Muslims and Jews, Palestinians fear Israel's next move

Jewish prayers recited loudly in groups. Singing and dancing. Men prostrating themselves, faces pressed to the ground. Israeli flags held aloft.

That was the scene inside Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of Islam’s holiest sites, during an Israeli raid earlier this month.

A few years ago, such a display would have been unimaginable. But since 7 October 2023, everything has changed, say Palestinians.

"There were terrifying numbers of people [Israeli settlers] present and some were important figures," Aouni Bazbaz, the director of international affairs at the Islamic Waqf, the organisation that administers Al-Aqsa Mosque, told Middle East Eye at the time.

"What happened… represents a pivotal stage aimed at forcibly imposing Jewish sovereignty over Al-Aqsa Mosque and dividing it spatially between Muslims and settlers,” he added.

Al-Aqsa Mosque, located in the Old City of Jerusalem, has stood at the centre of Israel’s decades-long occupation of Palestine.

For Palestinians and Muslims worldwide, the mosque symbolises the struggle for freedom, identity and independence.

For many Israelis, it is the site where the third Jewish temple is soon to rise.

'Palestinians and the Muslim world must realise the magnitude of the challenge'

- Official at Jerusalem's Islamic Waqf

For decades, it has been governed by an international arrangement upholding its religious status as an exclusively Islamic shrine.

But since the occupation of East Jerusalem in 1967, Israelis have been gradually eroding that status through increasing restrictions on Palestinian and Muslim access, while expanding Jewish presence and control.

Since 7 October, these efforts have intensified dramatically.

Today, as global attention remains fixed on Israel’s genocide in Gaza and broader regional tensions, Al-Aqsa stands at a turning point.

Many Palestinians fear it is on the brink of losing its identity as a mosque and being turned into what they have long dreaded: a third Jewish temple.

Erosion of the Status Quo

In the late 19th century, the Ottoman Empire, which ruled over Palestine at the time, established an arrangement governing the management of religious sites in Jerusalem.

This agreement became known as the Status Quo, a set of rules and regulations now considered a binding international norm, which has long been accepted by world powers.

The arrangement stipulated that the entire 144,000-square-metre Al-Aqsa Mosque complex - including the Dome of the Rock, the silver-domed Qibli Mosque, and other buildings and gates - fall under Muslim administration.

For decades, this administration has been known as the Islamic Waqf, or religious endowment, which falls under the Jordanian custodianship of the site.

The rules are simple: only Muslims are allowed to pray inside the mosque, while non-Muslims may visit, but the Waqf decides when and how.

Control over the mosque, including its maintenance, security and excavations, remains the sole responsibility of the Waqf.

Al-Aqsa Mosque: Palestinians proven right again as Israel ramps up violations

This authority, and by extension that of Amman, was formally recognised by Israel in the peace treaty signed with Jordan in 1994.

During Israel's occupation of Jerusalem, up until 2000, breaches of the Status Quo were few and far between, as Israeli authorities feared global Muslim backlash in the event of any assault on the mosque.

However, a raid by then-opposition leader Ariel Sharon on the mosque in 2000, accompanied by hundreds of armed guards, dramatically shifted the situation.

The raid sparked the Second Intifada, a Palestinian uprising, and from that point, Israeli authorities began to violate the Status Quo on a much larger scale.

First, Israeli forces started regularly deploying inside the mosque courtyards and at its gates, instituting restrictions on who was allowed to enter, such as banning men under 40 and Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank.

At the same time, Israeli authorities stripped the Waqf of its authority to control visits, opening the door for what Palestinians describe as raids by ultranationalist Israelis, often carried out under the protection of heavily armed guards.

These raids are organised by groups known as Temple Mount activists, which consist of Israeli organisations calling for the destruction of Al-Aqsa Mosque and the construction of a Third Temple in its place.

Additionally, since 2000, Israel has openly conducted excavations under Al-Aqsa Mosque, another significant violation of the Status Quo.

New normal

For the next two decades, Israel entrenched these new violations, transforming them into a new reality.

Initially, Israeli settler raids were limited in both number and duration. However, over the years, they grew steadily in scale and frequency.

In 2009, more than 5,000 settlers participated in these raids. By 2019, that number had risen to 30,000.

By 2017, the raids became a daily occurrence, excluding Fridays and Saturdays, following a strict schedule akin to the five daily Muslim prayers. One shift takes place in the morning, after the Muslim dawn (Fajr) prayer, with another in the afternoon, following the Muslim noon (Dhuhr) prayer.

This gradual but firm control over visitation times and access is what Palestinians have long warned was the ultimate goal.

Al-Aqsa Mosque: Israeli raids and incursions explained

They argue that Israeli authorities are creating a new reality, turning the mosque - a site considered solely Islamic - into a shared space for both Muslim and Jewish prayer.

As a result, these numerous violations have sparked regular Palestinian popular and armed resistance within Jerusalem and beyond.

In May 2021, Israeli incursions into the mosque during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which disrupted special Islamic rituals, were a major catalyst for the 11-day uprising that spread across historic Palestine, including a war with Hamas in Gaza.

Two years later, the Palestinian movement cited these violations as one of the primary reasons behind its 7 October attack, which it called the "Flood of Al-Aqsa". During the assault, Palestinian fighters killed nearly 1,200 Israelis and took 251 more captive.

This led to the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza, in which Israeli forces have killed more than 62,000 Palestinians and left the besieged enclave in ruins and on the verge of famine.

The escalation has had a domino effect, leading to devastating Israeli assaults in the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Iran.

Under the guise of these increasing regional tensions, the violations at Al-Aqsa have continued unabated.

They have only worsened, with diminishing international attention or response.

Escalation

On 13 October 2023, the first Friday after the Hamas-led attack, Israel banned anyone under the age of 60 from entering Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Hundreds of Israeli officers were deployed throughout the Old City and at the mosque’s entrances.

Outside, Israeli forces violently cracked down on anyone attempting to approach the mosque, forcing thousands to pray in the surrounding streets.

The Beyadenu Temple Mount Movement, a leading Temple Mount group, threatened to prevent Muslims from reaching the site.

Other far-right groups put the mosque’s imam on a Telegram hit list.

That day set the tone for what was to come.

An Israeli soldier watches Palestinians perform Friday prayers in occupied East Jerusalem on 20 October 2023 after they were banned from reaching Al-Aqsa Mosque (AFP/Ahmad Gharabli) — An Israeli soldier watches Palestinians perform Friday prayers in occupied East Jerusalem after they were banned from reaching Al-Aqsa Mosque, on 20 October 2023 (Ahmad Gharabli/AFP)

Since then, Israeli authorities and Temple Mount groups have intensified efforts to tighten control over Al-Aqsa Mosque. A key element of this strategy has been restricting Palestinian access.

These restrictions include ongoing bans and limitations on Palestinians from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

In many cases, men under the age of 50 are also denied entry.

In addition, Israeli forces issue dozens of individual bans each year targeting Palestinians from Jerusalem or within Israel itself.

These bans affect a wide range of people, including imams, journalists, activists and ordinary worshippers.

The mosque, which once accommodated hundreds of thousands of worshippers and regularly welcomed tens of thousands for Friday prayers, now sees only a few thousand on Fridays and merely hundreds on daily prayers.

Public prayers

Meanwhile, Israeli raids have grown in scale, attracting over 57,000 people in 2024, nearly double the number from five years earlier. The goal, according to Beyadenu, is to reach 100,000 annual participants.

The duration of each raid has also increased in recent months, allowing a large number of settlers to participate.

However, one of the most concerning developments in recent months has been the open and public performance of Jewish prayers during these raids.

While such prayers - another violation of the Status Quo - were previously performed silently and individually by some ultranationalists, any loud displays were typically met with a strict police response, out of concern for Palestinian and Muslim backlash.

'Grabbed by an iron fist': Ben-Gvir visit shows Israel is seizing control of Al-Aqsa

But in April 2024, it was revealed that Itamar Ben Gvir, the national security minister who oversees Israeli police in Jerusalem, had implemented a policy to change the Status Quo by allowing Jewish prayers inside the mosque without interruption.

In June, Temple Mount activists said that Ben Gvir told them that "from now on, his policy is to allow singing and dancing throughout the Temple Mount".

A Ynet article said that police are changing the Status Quo by enforcing a "more Jewish worshippers, less enforcement" policy there.

Ben Gvir himself led hundreds of settlers in storming Al-Aqsa Mosque complex earlier this month, where they loudly performed Jewish prayers.

The raids now regularly feature scenes of Israelis performing Jewish prayers, including prostration, reading from the Torah, singing loudly and raising the Israeli flag.

"I remember times when anyone who moved his lips would be arrested," Yehudah Glick, a leading Temple Mount activist and a former Likud MP, told MEE.

"I remember the days when we were just a few, today we have grown," he added.

More recently, a troubling new trend has emerged, according to a senior source within the Waqf, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

This trend involves group prayers and sermons led by Rabbi Shimshon Elbaum, head of the so-called Temple Mount Administration.

Sovereignty

Then, in June, Israel took an unprecedented step: Al-Aqsa Mosque was completely shut down for several days.

The reason cited was Israel’s war on Iran.

However, Israel had never taken such a measure even during more volatile periods in the past, suggesting there was more behind the move.

According to Palestinians, the real aim was to assert Israeli “sovereignty” over the mosque, demonstrating that it can open and close it at will.

This effort has also been reflected in smaller but consistent actions designed to erode the Waqf’s role and authority.

The senior Waqf official who spoke to MEE said Israel does not allow the Waqf to hire staff or carry out any maintenance inside the mosque without prior approval.

On one occasion, he said, a pipe burst in his office, but he was not permitted to bring in a technician to fix it for two months. As a result, he received a water bill for 50,000 shekels (roughly $14,700) for a problem that could have been fixed with a $3 part.

'Our authority over Al-Aqsa is zero'

- Official at Jerusalem's Islamic Waqf

Even bringing in soap or toilet valves requires prior authorisation, he added.

"I can’t fix the windows or address any issues in the offices. I can’t even clean the drains before winter. Everything requires a permit, and all they say is: submit a request.

"No one is allowed to carry out any maintenance work inside Al-Aqsa Mosque compound without risking arrest."

Even more striking, he said, was Israel’s decision in 2022 to block the entry of new carpets donated by Jordanian King Abdullah II, the official custodian of Al-Aqsa.

The carpets, which cover an area of around 7,000 square metres and cost $600,000, were paid for from the king’s personal funds, the source said.

"After the carpets were produced according to the required specifications and were ready for shipping, Israel halted everything. They blocked their entry at the border. We tried to obtain approvals, all in vain."

This push for control is part of a longstanding agenda championed by figures such as Ben Gvir and Temple Mount activists, including both current and former members of the Israeli parliament.

By taking steps such as delaying maintenance, blocking shipments of essential items, and opening or closing the mosque gates at will, Israel aims to strip the Waqf of the limited authority it still retains, placing the site firmly under its control.

According to the source, this has become the de facto reality, where the Waqf’s administration exists only on paper, while in practice, Israel controls everything within the mosque complex.

"Our authority over Al-Aqsa is zero," he said.

"Talk of ‘shared sovereignty’ is no longer a distant aspiration for these Temple groups. It has become a practical project, implemented step by step.”

The Third Temple

With Israel now in near-full control of Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the Status Quo "long dead", as some observers put it, the question that looms is: what comes next?

In mid-2023, just a few months before the Hamas-led attack, Amit Halevi, an Israeli MP from the governing Likud party, proposed a plan to divide Al-Aqsa Mosque between Jews and Muslims.

Halevi suggested allocating around 30 percent of the southern section of the complex to Muslims, while reserving the remainder, including the area where the Dome of the Rock stands, for Jews.

He also proposed revoking Jordan’s custodianship of the mosque, echoing longstanding demands from Temple Mount activist groups.

A year later, Ben Gvir expressed support for the idea. Although he did not explicitly call for physically dividing the mosque, he stated his backing for the construction of a synagogue within the complex.

Calls to destroy Al-Aqsa Mosque and replace it with a third Jewish temple have long been part of the rhetoric of Temple Mount activist groups.

But in recent years, many of those groups have gained significant influence, with supporters and members now holding seats in Israel’s parliament and cabinet, including Ben Gvir himself.

'What is happening at Al-Aqsa Mosque is not just a series of passing violations... It’s a comprehensive Judaisation project'

- Official at Jerusalem's Islamic Waqf

In May, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that they would "expand Israel’s borders, bring about complete redemption, and rebuild the Temple here" during a speech at a "Jerusalem Day" rally.

Yitzhak Wasserlauf, a member of Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party and minister for the Negev, Galilee and national resilience, echoed the same call during a raid on Al-Aqsa earlier this month.

"We pray for the building of the temple and complete redemption," he said in a video filmed from inside the mosque complex.

Palestinians fear that after successfully imposing a de facto temporal division in Al-Aqsa - by allocating specific times for Muslims and Jews to access or pray at the site - the next move is a physical division.

And just like the temporal division, this will come in stages, the first of which will be building a synagogue inside the mosque complex before expanding.

It mirrors the gradual takeover of the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron, which was first divided temporally, then spatially.

Now, Israeli authorities are reportedly planning to officially strip the Waqf of its administrative role there as well.

During Ramadan 2025, Israeli forces barred Muslims from entering the Ibrahimi Mosque on Fridays in an unprecedented move.

"What is happening at Al-Aqsa Mosque is not just a series of passing violations," said the Waqf source who spoke to MEE.

"It’s a comprehensive Judaisation project aimed at imposing full Israeli sovereignty over the mosque.

"Palestinians and the Muslim world must realise the magnitude of the challenge and prepare to confront a plan that is racing against time, before the imposed reality becomes irreversible."

Additional reporting by Nadav Rapaport in Jerusalem

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