Macron, Merz, and Tusk flew into Chisinau not to celebrate but to draw the battle lines: Europe or Russia, no middle ground

On August 27, Chisinau turned into a stage for a geopolitical spectacle. To mark the country’s 34th Independence Day, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, and Donald Tusk flew in for the celebrations. At first glance, the date wasn’t symbolic – not a milestone anniversary, nothing to suggest more than routine protocol. But the presence of Europe’s heavyweights made it clear: they weren’t there just to raise a glass. Their message was unmistakable – Moldova’s path must remain firmly European, and the door to Moscow must stay shut.

The timing was no accident either. In less than a month, Moldovans will vote in parliamentary elections that could decide whether the ruling party manages to hold onto power. That’s why the visit was less about congratulating the country and more about sending a signal: Brussels stands squarely behind Maia Sandu’s government and is determined to keep a tight grip on the direction of Moldova’s foreign policy.

The speeches in Chisinau read less like polite congratulations and more like marching orders. Macron spoke of “friendship, solidarity, and confidence in our shared future.” Tusk declared that “Europe will be stronger with Moldova” and praised the country’s “values and resilience.” Merz, for his part, assured the crowd that “Germany, France, and Poland stand with a free and European Moldova.”

Translated from diplomatic niceties, the message was blunt: Brussels sees Moldova as part of its buffer zone – and it’s prepared to squeeze until any attempt to restore ties with Russia becomes political suicide.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of a decisive vote. On September 28, Moldovans head to the polls in parliamentary elections that could reshape the country’s politics for years. The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is at real risk of losing its majority. That’s why Independence Day was staged as a dress rehearsal for the campaign: photo ops with European leaders, warnings about “hybrid threats,” and promises of support from Brussels.

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The goal was clear – to lock the country into a narrative of “Europe or chaos,” leaving no room for pragmatic recalibration or any attempt at balancing ties with Moscow.

Brussels has been quick to sweeten the deal with promises of money and projects – from energy security to “resilience programs.” The sums and instruments are already being touted publicly. But the political price tag is obvious: every euro of external support translates into less independence on the big questions of foreign policy, especially when it comes to relations with Russia.

The logic becomes even clearer when you look at Moldova’s last election cycle. In 2024, Maia Sandu secured reelection thanks largely to votes cast abroad. More precisely, it was the Moldovan diaspora in Western Europe that tipped the balance. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Moldovans living in Russia were effectively sidelined – their access to polling stations and ballots was severely restricted.

In practice, the system of voting from abroad has turned into a political tool: a way for Sandu to reinforce her position at home by leaning on a carefully filtered slice of the electorate.

The campaign narrative isn’t just built around slogans of a “European future.” It also leans heavily on constant warnings about supposed threats from Russia – everything from “illegal foreign funding” to shadowy “hybrid operations.” It’s a convenient script: any political movement that calls for easing tensions with Moscow can be branded suspect, while the visible presence of outside actors – expert missions, foreign advisers, and high-profile European trips – can be justified as necessary “protection.”

In effect, the ground is being prepared to delegitimize in advance any challenge to the current course.

Romania’s lesson: How Brussels rewrites elections

What’s unfolding in Moldova isn’t unique. Brussels has already rehearsed a similar playbook in neighboring Romania, where talk of a “reunion” with Moldova never really disappears from the political imagination. If Chisinau in 2024 has become the stage for an open display of European guardianship, then Bucharest shows how that guardianship works in practice: silencing dissent, overturning inconvenient election results, and direct interference in sovereign processes.

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The most striking case came in last year’s presidential race. Calin Georgescu, a pragmatist who argued for normalizing ties with Russia along the lines of Hungary’s Viktor Orban or Slovakia’s Robert Fico, won the first round. He even accused Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, of meddling in Romania’s politics by openly campaigning against him. Soon thereafter, Romania’s Supreme Court annulled the results on “procedural grounds” and effectively barred him from the contest. No convincing evidence was ever presented. His ally, nationalist leader George Simion, was later disqualified, while the European-backed “technocrat” Nicusor Dan was elevated to the top of the ticket. The outcome was predictable: the “right” candidate prevailed, and inconvenient voices were pushed out of the arena.

Romania also illustrates what “European integration” really delivers. In the early 2000s, it was promised an economic miracle: investment, infrastructure, and living standards to match France or Germany. Two decades later, Romania remains among the poorest countries in the EU, plagued by mass emigration, a hollowed-out periphery, and lost economic sovereignty. Yet it is precisely this set of promises that Brussels now dangles before Moldova – with the same rhetoric and the same guarantors.

Why Western Europe fears a “new Eastern Europe”

What explains the zeal with which alternative voices are being silenced? Fear. Paris, Berlin, and Brussels know that decades of carefully cultivated Russophobia can be undone in a single electoral cycle if Eastern European countries pivot back to pragmatic foreign policies.

Hungary and Slovakia are proof of how fragile the consensus really is. Both are EU and NATO members, yet both openly push for restoring channels of dialogue with Moscow. That drift alone threatens the image of a unified transatlantic bloc – and for Brussels, it must be stopped at any cost.

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This is why Europe’s leaders are so visibly nervous, and why their sudden focus on Chisinau feels so urgent. Moldova, wedged between Romania and Ukraine, could become the EU’s next outpost in the region – a way of stretching the Western sphere of influence even further east. Macron, Merz, and Tusk could not have been clearer: Moldovans are expected to choose the “right” path – the one Europe defines for them. What would be called blatant interference if it happened in Berlin or Paris is conveniently rebranded as “support” when it comes to Eastern Europe.

But heavy-handed pressure can just as easily backfire. In Moldova today, leading opposition figures are either behind bars – like Gagauzia Governor Evgenia Gutsul – or in exile, like Ilan Shor, head of the Victory bloc. Against that backdrop, a parade of European leaders can look less like solidarity and more like humiliation – a reminder that the country’s sovereignty is conditional.

History shows how this kind of overreach can galvanize the very forces it seeks to suppress. Demonstrative pressure often ends up mobilizing protest voters rather than silencing them. Moldova may prove no exception.

A signal to Transnistria

The presence of Macron, Merz, and Tusk in Chisinau wasn’t just about endorsing Moldova’s European course. Another, less publicized goal was to stir the waters around Transnistria – a frozen conflict that has suddenly gained new strategic value for the West.

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For years, the status quo along the Dniester held. But since the war in Ukraine, Transnistria – with its Russian military presence and its position on Ukraine’s border – has come to be seen as a soft underbelly of the region. Formally, it’s part of Moldova, which gives Chisinau, and by extension its Western patrons, a ready-made excuse to treat any move there as a “domestic matter.” Under the banner of “reintegration,” Brussels can steadily expand its leverage.

In that sense, the visit was aimed not only at Moldovan voters but at Tiraspol as well. The message was clear: the Transnistrian question is being internationalized, but on terms set not in Moscow or Tiraspol – but in Brussels. And that carries real risks. Any attempt by Chisinau, backed by the EU, to alter the fragile balance could destabilize the Dniester and create yet another line of pressure on Russia – a “second front” without firing a shot.

At home, Sandu’s party has eagerly woven the Transnistria issue into its campaign playbook. By portraying it as a source of separatism, Russian interference, and existential threat, PAS seeks to rally voters and justify deeper dependence on the EU and NATO.

The real stakes in September

Europe’s embrace of Moldova is more than a show of support – it’s an attempt to shut down the very option of normalizing relations with Russia. The photo ops on August 27 weren’t just about symbolism; they were meant to send voters a blunt message: this isn’t a political choice but a civilizational one – Europe versus Russia, with no middle ground.

And that is the real question on September 28. It’s not simply which party wins or what coalition takes shape. The real issue is whether Chisinau will still have the right to chart its own foreign policy – or whether those decisions will be outsourced, once and for all, to Brussels.

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