Somaliland risks tensions with plan to accept displaced Palestinians from Gaza

The unrecognised republic situated on the Horn of Africa is being offered US recognition but experts say any complicity with Israel risks anger at home

A woman walks a cross a stall inside a market in Hargeisa in the unrecognised Republic of Somaliland in November 2024 (AFP/Luis Tato)

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On a warm evening in the bustling streets of Hargeisa, the capital of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, Mohamed* chews the popular regional stimulant qat while scrolling through his Facebook feed.

A striking headline catches his attention, one that says US President Donald Trump will "look into" the recognition of the unrecognised republic, should it take in Palestinians ethnically cleansed from Gaza.

“I am shocked to hear that,” Mohamed says, his head shaking slowly. “I don’t believe any attempt to bring Palestinians to Somaliland will be possible.”

His opposition is not rooted in hostility towards Palestinians; he has no objection to hosting them, but, he clarifies: “Any attempt to forcefully bring them to Somaliland would mean the loss of their homeland.”

Somalis belong to a deeply conservative Muslim society and have long been supporters of the Palestinian cause, especially since the start of Israel’s genocide in Gaza in October 2023.

Mosques in the region regularly offer prayers for the Palestinian people, of whom at least 62,000 have been killed by Israel since the start of the genocide.

Many in Somaliland would gladly travel to Gaza to help the Palestinians there if the means were available, Mohamed included.

A threat to stability

Unlike territory controlled by the Somali government based in Mogadishu, the territory held by Somaliland has enjoyed relative stability since civil war ravaged Somali in the 1990s.

Besides the ethical considerations of expelling Palestinians from their homeland, Mohamed believes bringing Palestinians to the region could disrupt that relative peace.

He cites two threats: the first is the al-Shabab group, which could use such an unpopular move to rally support and increase recruitment.

'If the government of Somaliland ever announced such an intention, people would arm themselves and fight against it'

- Mohamed, Hargeisa

And the second is the reaction amongst Somaliland residents themselves.

“If the government of Somaliland ever announced such an intention, people would arm themselves and fight against it,” Mohamed tells MEE.

Somaliland's government did not respond to MEE’s request for comment but a recent report by CNN suggests Israel has held discussions with Somaliland over the potential resettlement of forcibly displaced Palestinians from Gaza.

The progress of such plans to a stage where diplomats are holding discussions has irked many Somalis. On social media, many have cautioned Somaliland’s newly elected president, Abdirahman Abdullahi Irro, against seeking international recognition at the expense of Palestinian suffering.

Right groups in Somaliland are also concerned about the possibility.

“Somaliland’s constitution explicitly states that it respects international law,” said Guleid Ahmed Jama, a human rights advocate in Hargeisa.

“Any forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza would not only violate that commitment but could also render Somaliland complicit in the genocide against Palestinians in Gaza,” he added in a conversation with MEE.

“It’s not in the interest of Somaliland, given that it lacks international recognition. Should they proceed with such a move, Hargeisa could also face diplomatic isolation similar to that of Israel.

“Many countries that once sympathised with the Hargeisa cause would likely withdraw their support.”

He agrees with Mohamed that such a move could also incite internal revolts and precipitate significant instability, not only within Somaliland but across the Horn of Africa.

UAE soft power

Cultural, structural and political factors are also perceived as likely concerns.

Dr Abdifatah Ismael Tahir, a research fellow at the University of Manchester, noted that while Somali society has long-standing traditions of hospitality, large-scale settlement of Palestinians would face significant challenges.

“Limited economic opportunities, scarcity of land, and the potential for clan-based tensions are also a key factor,” Tahir notes.

“It could also turn Somaliland into a geopolitical flashpoint, attracting destabilising attention from the Houthis [in Yemen] and other actors.”

Tahir argues that some clans and political actors might resort to violence to protect their territories, particularly if they see the relocation as being driven by external political agendas.

“The UAE is widely regarded as a key advocate for Somaliland’s international recognition as it seeks control of Berbera’s trade routes and countering Djibouti."

Berbera is the main sea port of the country on the Gulf of Aden and a key attraction for outside powers including the United Arab Emirates.

Abu Dhabi had previously made inroads in neighbouring Djibouti in the hope of developing ports there but is currently involved in a bitter dispute with the country that has forced it to scale back its investments.

Officials in Djibouti accuse the UAE of trying to influence its internal politics through Emirati development projects in the country. Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh has described the Gulf state's behaviour as "disguised colonialism".

“After its expulsion from Djibouti, [the UAE] has pursued soft power and strategic engagement to diminish Djibouti’s regional influence,” Tahir tells MEE.

According to Israeli media outlets, the UAE and Israel have been working together to establish a stronger footprint in the Horn of Africa by developing military, economic and strategic infrastructure in Somaliland.

Strategic but inadequate for Trump

For more than three decades, Somaliland has actively pursued international recognition for territories under its control, which form the northern half of what is internationally recognised as Somalia.

Despite operating as a de facto independent state for decades, it currently has no recognition internationally.

The proposal to resettle Palestinians ethnically cleansed from Gaza there has consequently come as a surprise to many.

Does Trump care about the issue of Palestinian statehood?

Earlier this month, US Texas Senator Ted Cruz wrote to Trump urging him to formally recognise Somaliland.

The Republican senator said that Hargeisa aims to strengthen ties with Israel and has voiced support for the Abraham Accords.

But Cruz’s optimism might be misplaced.

Omar Mahmood, a researcher at the International Crisis Group with a focus on Somalia, contends that Hargeisa has limited leverage to offer given Trump's transactional foreign policy style.

“Somaliland will have to offer a good enough deal that Trump sees is clearly in US interests,” Mahmood says.

“The US might push resettling of Palestinians as part of any deal, but that alone is unlikely to be sufficient and would also be politically combustible within Somaliland,” says Mahmood.

Berbera alone, however, might not be enough for a president wary of foreign entanglements, as the US can still access the port facility via arrangements with both Hargeisa and Mogadishu without recognition.

It is widely believed that Berbera remains Somaliland’s most valuable asset in attracting American interest.

'The US might push resettling of Palestinians as part of any deal, but that is unlikely to be sufficient and would be politically combustible within Somaliland'

- Omar Mahmood, International Crisis Group

According to Faisal Roble, a prominent Horn of Africa analyst, “If the focus is on US interests, Washington can utilise Bosaaso, located on the Gulf of Aden, gateway to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, offering comparable strategic advantages to Berbera.”

Somaliland also faces a separate threat of encroachment by the Mogadishu goverment.

Over the years, Somaliland’s total landmass has decreased and the unrecognised state has been reduced to an enclave.

Recently, Somalia’s federal government recognised the Sool and Sanaag provinces, long considered part of Somaliland, as a new regional state aligned with a unified Somalia.

The new state called North-East constitutes approximately 60 percent of Somaliland’s total landmass and its loss is viewed as a significant setback to Somaliland’s quest for recognition.

“The newly formed state will not accept the relocation of Palestinians,” says Roble. “Even the regions remaining under Hargeisa are not likely to accept.”

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