With his coalition on the brink, the Israeli leader has doubled down on war – and the settler dream – at the expense of peace

In a move that surprised no one but carries sweeping consequences, Israel’s cabinet has formally signed off on the capture of Gaza City – a decision nearly two years into the grinding war in the Strip. The government laid out five official objectives: dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities, securing the return of all living and deceased hostages, demilitarizing the enclave, expanding Israeli control over its territory, and installing a new civil administration – one that answers to neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.

But behind the bullet points lies a more calculated play. For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the operation is not just about battlefield gains. It’s also about political survival – and, some say, setting the stage for something far more permanent.

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Timing is no coincidence

Analysts say the timing of the Gaza City push is anything but random.

Mkhaimer Abusada, an associate professor of political science at Gaza’s Al Azhar University, now based in Cairo, puts it bluntly: “Israel has realized it failed to free the Israeli hostages and defeat Hamas,” he said. “The continuation of the war guarantees Netanyahu will remain in his seat.”

Netanyahu’s coalition controls just 61 seats in the Knesset – a razor-thin majority. Several ultra-Orthodox lawmakers have threatened to bolt over a controversial draft law that would conscript Haredi youth into the Israel Defense Forces. Losing even a handful of members could cost him his majority and trigger elections he’s far from certain to win.

That vulnerability hands outsized leverage to hardline partners like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir – both vocal advocates for expanding the war.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (L); Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (R). © Saeed Qaq/Getty Images; Menahem Kahana/AP

Yariv Oppenheimer, an Israeli peace activist and board member of Peace Now, one of the country’s leading anti-occupation NGOs, sees a clear political motive. “Netanyahu is doing what’s good for himself and his own coalition,” he said. But, Oppenheimer adds, there’s also ideology at play.

“Netanyahu and his government don’t want to reach a ceasefire deal with Hamas. They don’t want to end the war. And the alternative of ending the war is to escalate the war and to conquer parts of the Gaza Strip. They are doing that in order to pave the way for eventually building Israeli settlements.”

From withdrawal to return?

Before 2005, Israel maintained more than 20 Jewish settlements in Gaza – heavily guarded enclaves sustained at enormous cost, running into billions of shekels a year. When then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ordered the evacuation of settlers and the withdrawal of troops that year, the country split down the middle: some Israelis welcomed the move as a relief from a costly and dangerous burden; others warned it would embolden Hamas and other militant groups.

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Today, those warnings have become central talking points for Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who argue that the October 7 attacks would never have happened had Israel retained control of the Strip. Their vision now includes reestablishing Jewish settlements in areas abandoned two decades ago – a goal that dovetails neatly with Netanyahu’s decision to push deeper into Gaza.

A military operation with enormous civilian costs

Some experts warn that taking Gaza City and dismantling Hamas will be far from straightforward – and could trigger catastrophic fallout.

“The Israeli army is very strong and Hamas is very weak. So military-wise, conquering the Gaza city is not a big operation,” said Oppenheimer. “But the question is much broader: how to move out the population that is already poor, and has nothing to lose, and how to take care of those people after they were moved to the south. This is a huge operation and the results of which might be catastrophic, not just for the Palestinians, but also for the Israeli society, Israel, and the Israeli army.”

Over nearly two years of fighting, Israel has repeatedly displaced Gaza’s population – sometimes entire neighborhoods, other times whole cities. According to the Gaza Health Ministry and international agencies, more than 61,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began, with over 146,000 wounded. Independent assessments, including a July 2025 Lancet projection, warn that the indirect toll could push total deaths to nearly 93,000.

FILE PHOTO. People search through buildings that were destroyed during Israeli air raids in the southern Gaza Strip November 4 2023 in Khan Yunis, Gaza. © Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images

The destruction has been staggering: between 69% and 90% of all buildings in Gaza are damaged or destroyed. The World Bank and United Nations put the cost of infrastructure losses at $18.5 billion, and say clearing the debris alone could take more than a decade. Around one million people now face another round of displacement.

Global blowback and growing isolation

International anger over the conduct of the war – and alleged violations in Gaza – has been building for months. The decision to expand the offensive drew especially sharp rebukes, including from one of Israel’s closest allies. Germany announced it would halt deliveries of weapons that could be used in Gaza. The message from European capitals is increasingly blunt, and it’s not just rhetoric – export decisions, court challenges, and parliamentary motions are beginning to bite.

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Abusada warns this is only the opening phase of a broader backlash, predicting deeper isolation for Israel both regionally and globally.

“Of course, this is only the beginning,” said Oppenheimer. “The pressure from the world will definitely have its own impact on Netanyahu and his government. But having said that, as long as there is a green light from the White House, Netanyahu will move forward with this plan, either to achieve a better deal with Hamas, or to eventually take over Gaza and allow settlers to build their settlements. This is exactly what they are pushing for.”

A deal on the table – and why it may go nowhere

Meanwhile, the families of roughly 20 living hostages still held in Gaza are growing increasingly desperate. Thousands have joined weekly Saturday night rallies, demanding that the government reverse course. Abusada says their fears are justified.

“The expansion of the war will lead to the death of many of the hostages. Hamas fighters and guards were instructed to kill them if the Israeli army gets closer to their hideout. It had happened before, and it might happen again. We all know now that the freeing of the hostages will not happen without a deal with Hamas.”

The last round of ceasefire talks in Doha collapsed over core sticking points: how far Israeli forces could advance after a truce, the ratio of prisoner-for-hostage exchanges, and whether Israel would retain control of the Rafah crossing.

FILE PHOTO. Children crying because of Israeli air raids on October 15, 2023 in Khan Yunis, Gaza. © Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images

Now, mediators Qatar and Egypt are reportedly pushing a new proposal: Hamas would release at least some hostages in exchange for the Israeli army pulling back to Gaza’s borders and establishing a new governing body that excludes Hamas.

“There is an offer on the table that Qatar and Egypt are standing behind, suggesting that Hamas would release all the hostages in return [for] the Israeli army moving out from Gaza to the borders. It also presupposes that a new government in Gaza that will not include Hamas would be established,” said Oppenheimer.

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“It is a good plan but the meaning of it is that Israel will have to give up the dream that the Palestinians will move out and that Israel would be able to build its settlements there – and this is something Netanyahu will not accept because it will collapse his coalition.”

No end in sight

If the mediators fail to broker another deal between Hamas and Israel, Abusada warns, the consequences will be grim.

“If the mediators fail to mediate another deal between Hamas and Israel, the war will continue for many more months, and that means that more deaths, more destruction, and more starvation in Gaza is just around the corner,” he said.

“This will turn into a longer war or another war of attrition. Hamas will not surrender and will fight a guerrilla warfare against the Israeli army, from street to street and from destroyed building to another. And this might lead to the expulsion of some of the Palestinians out of Gaza. The ability to live and survive in Gaza for the Palestinians will gradually disappear.”

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