How the Northern Cyprus election may prompt Turkey to re-think federalism

No one in Ankara was surprised by the election results in Northern Cyprus last weekend, which saw the pro-federation candidate Tufan Erhurman elected as the next president of the breakaway Turkish republic on the divided island. 

Erhurman’s landslide victory has largely been interpreted as a slap in Turkey’s face, given Ankara’s clear preference for the incumbent Ersin Tatar, who strongly supported Turkey’s two-state solution for the island rather than a unification plan based on a federation. 

However, the reactions from the Turkish leadership, particularly from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, show that Ankara does not have serious concerns about Erhurman’s election. In a congratulatory message, Erdogan said Turkey would continue to support Turkish Cypriots on every platform. 

Although this outcome may seem counterintuitive, the election might create new possibilities for renewed unification talks for the island in the medium term, provided that certain conditions are met. 

“Unlike in 2020 when there was a heavy-handed push for Tatar, this time Turkey let it play out in Northern Cyprus,” a European official told Middle East Eye, referring to Ankara’s stronger intervention during the previous election. 

Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 after a failed coup that aimed to unite the island with Greece. Since then, Cyprus has remained divided between the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara. 

The same official said that Erhurman’s victory presents an opportunity for both communities to revive reunification talks.

This is despite earlier failed attempts, such as the 2004 Annan Plan referendum, when Greek Cypriots rejected the UN-brokered unification proposal, and the 2017 Crans-Montana talks, which collapsed even though Turkey offered considerable concessions, including troop withdrawals. 

After the 2017 breakdown, Ankara focused on strengthening the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as a separate entity and began promoting a two-state or confederation model.

Northern Cyprus is currently recognised by the Organisation of Turkic States as an observer state, and its president has been received by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on several occasions. 

Easing tensions with Europe

Turkish journalist Barcin Yinanc wrote in her column on T24 website this week that Erhurman’s approach to the Cyprus issue could help Ankara ease tensions with Europe while it seeks to rebuild relations with western countries. 

“Cyprus is a low-hanging fruit, an unnecessary irritant,” said a European diplomat, adding that Turkey’s support for Tatar was very limited. “It was as if they took all the required steps but did not go beyond that.” 

Turkey has recently requested participation in the EU Security Action for Europe (SAFE) Initiative, which intends to allocate 150 billion euros to European defence companies for research and development in order to boost Europe’s defence production capacity. 

However, both Greece and Cyprus are currently blocking Turkey’s involvement.

Athens demands that Turkey withdraw the casus belli declaration made by its parliament in response to potential Greek expansion of territorial waters, while Nicosia continues to view Turkey as an occupying power in the north.

This position also blocks Ankara’s broader EU accession process. 

Erhurman is familiar to Ankara. He previously served as prime minister of Northern Cyprus in 2019 and participated in earlier reunification discussions. 

After his election victory, Erhurman said that he would cooperate with Turkey to protect the rights of Turkish Cypriots. 

Before the election, he told Turkish journalists that a federal solution was essentially a two-state arrangement in which both communities would have their own governments and guaranteed rights.

'The Greek Cypriots could take steps to show goodwill and a true commitment to finding a resolution, regardless of the outcome'

- Turkish source 

“The Turkish state already exists,” he said, “but Turkish Cypriots lack privileges.” 

“We have a list of six key issues to resolve,” he told Oksijen newspaper over the weekend. “These are security across the island, energy, hydrocarbons, maritime delimitation, trade routes and EU citizenship.” 

Erhurman also made it clear that he would not take part in open-ended negotiations with the Greek Cypriots. 

“There must be a timeline with a clear deadline,” he told Turkish media. “And there must be guarantees ensuring that the status quo will not simply continue if the talks fail to reach a resolution.” 

His message is that the Turkish Cypriot side will not engage in endless negotiations unless the Greek Cypriots treat the talks seriously and accept that there will be consequences even if no deal is reached. 

Concerns over Israel

There are still questions about Ankara’s position regarding further discussions. 

Earlier this year, Fidan attended a meeting on Cyprus in New York under the auspices of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres undertaking Turkey’s role as a guarantor power.

That meeting produced some confidence-building measures, including plans to open additional border crossings between the north and south. 

“Guterres would like to give another try to unification talks before his term ends in about a year,” said another European diplomat.

However, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the nationalist MHP party and a key partner in Turkey’s ruling coalition, stated that he would not allow Northern Cyprus to slip away from Turkish control. He even proposed annexing the territory. 

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“Bahceli always starts from the most radical position, which expands Erdogan’s room to manoeuvre,” said journalist Nevsin Mengu, noting that this tactic has often been used by the ruling coalition when dealing with sensitive issues. 

A Turkish source familiar with Ankara’s thinking told Middle East Eye that Turkey might reconsider its position if the Greek Cypriot side demonstrates genuine willingness to resolve the issue. 

“The ball is in their court,” the source said. “The Greek Cypriots could take steps to show goodwill and a true commitment to finding a resolution, regardless of the outcome.” 

The same source added that a package of incentives from the EU, such as access to the SAFE initiative, an update to the customs union, and new opportunities for economic and military cooperation, could also encourage Ankara. 

“And you can drop Trump into the equation, which could help everyone reach the finishing line,” the source added cryptically. 

One matter that increasingly concerns Ankara is the growing cooperation between Israel and Greek Cypriots.

Earlier this year, Nicosia purchased Israeli Barak MX air defence systems, which might allow the collection of intelligence on Turkish military activity in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

Fidan recently said that such purchases only increase tensions with Ankara and do not provide the deterrence that Greek Cypriots expect. 

At the same time, the deepening partnership between the Greek Cypriots and Israel could also push Ankara to consider re-engaging in unification talks as a way to counterbalance that emerging alliance through renewed diplomacy.